Saturday, April 11, 2026

September 13, 2009

Gold Comments in Europe

A currency trader in London alerted me to the following about 10 minutes ago:

UBS analyst John Reade recommended that nimble investors take profits on any long gold and silver positions.

He would look to re-enter long positions after a correction.

Mr. Reade has a price target over the next month of $950/0z.

Reade is a winner of the London Bullion Market Association’s forecasting prize.

President Obama Speech Monday

I have read the text of the speech that President Obama will give to Wall Street tomorrow — Monday. The focus of the speech is a discussion of a plan to wind down the bank bailout plan.The president will call for a global effort to prevent financial crises.I won’t write much more about it. I’d rather not divulge too much.

What some would term the largest financial crime in the history of the world — the government bailout of the banks and autos — continues on track at a rapid pace. Being a trader, journalist, and spectator is quite fun at the moment. Lots of opportunity,  lots of controversy, tons of sensationalism. Let the good times roll!

EUR/CHF At Levels Not Seen Since March

Lots of chatter about the EURCHF (Euro Swiss cross) seeing levels not seen since March of this year.

Futures -10.50 on SPX. Nymex Light Crude Oil -1.19 at $68.10. Dollar is up a tad against Euro off +/-72 pips. Spot gold of $3.20 at $1,003.2 per oz.

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I was transmitted this earlier from one of my reporters whom I quote:

“Wall Street Journal Currency Trading section expects accelerated USD decline this week if economic data shows further improvement.”

Does it seem odd that currency traders are programmed to short the dollar as data comes in “better than expected.”

I think something that may really catch people off guard here is if the dollar moves suddenly higher.

Again, the risk aversion trade is the dollar. If the dollar starts to go up with any strength, there are vast ramifications for all dollar denominated assets. They’ll all go lower.

Keep the dollar front and center on the radar.

September 12, 2009

Market Rap 11 September 2009

A generally quiet session with some action, but not much. The S&P closed about flat at -1.41 or -.14%.

Overall, something seems not right with the market. Whatever that is may pass or it may lead to further volatility. As of now, there doesn’t seem to be an argument in town that can stop this thing. To that end, the S&P could potentially soar from here. All things are possible.

If the S&P does continue it’s ferocious march, it is VERY tough to know what to buy up here. Most of the breakouts I am seeing are concentrated in the stocks under $5 bin–the junk.

Gold seems to be on everyone’s radar. This is good. In a bull movement, it is best to have lots and lots of players interested in a market, betting on it as the next big thing. Good bull markets are born of enthusiastic participation. Whether the next 10% move in gold is to be up or down remains to be seen. Stay tuned. Spot gold closed the week at a high not seen since the week of March 17,2008 for a $1,004.86.

Treasuries were up slightly on the week. Treasury rates may find support here, but for my money, they must eventually head lower. That said, next week’s move in anyone’s call.

10 Year Rates

10 Year Rates

September 11, 2009

1987 Comparison

SPX 1987

SPX 1987

$SPX 2009

SPX 2009

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