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September 16, 2009

Trader Stories

September 16th is the 259th day of the year (260th in leap years) according to the Gregorian calendar. There are 106 days remaining until the end of the year.

September 16, 1992 is known as Black Wednesday. It earned this auspicious alias when the Bank of England “was forced to withdraw the pound from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) after they were unable to keep sterling above its agreed lower limit.”  -Wikipedia

Not surprisingly, George Soros made over $1 billion dollars on the trade. I spoke to George about it some time later.

“Nice trade, George,” I said.

“Thanks,” he replied.

“How’d you figure it?”

“They said they would defend the pound, and I knew they could not,” he explained.

“How’d you know?”

“When I started selling them pounds it became obvious. So I sold them as much as I could.”

“What’d you do it against?”

“The Deutsche Mark, of course.”

“Nice trade George. Very nice.”

Alan Greenspan Comments

Alan Greenspan is over the wire…

– The US economy appears to be turning and he sees “global disinflation for a short period.”

– A single systemic risk regulator is not feasible.

– He sees “no inflation and good growth” over the next 6 months.

–The US National debt is at very dangerous levels.

Respect: Alan Greenspan


Comments (3) Categories: trading

Market Rap 15 September 2009

Meanwhile, back at the office, I am consulting with one of the most important people in my network, X. We are talking about a few different ways that quant traders at Goldman Sachs are making money right now. The number one trade over at the trader’s pit of government workers — Goldman — is gunning the S&P higher by going long the euro yen spread against the dollar. Thanks to the overweight of euros to yen in the dollar index, as you buy EURJPY with dollars, the dollar is pushed lower, and the S&P higher. As soon as this structure is in place, you lever long S&Ps.

These are the trades that are making Goldman’s trading stats so good right here and now — a tremendous record to say the least. I know tons of traders over at Goldie, and we speak on a regular basis. Some of them are my very good friends. Speaking to one of them the other night, I said, “Your track record is really good.” If nothing else, good trader’s know that the tape can be very humbling. He agreed.

Sometimes when trading records are too good — like with Enron — no one asks the right questions until it is too late. Whatever happens, I hope my trader pals at Goldie will be all right.

After that, we recapped today’s scores.

The S&P 500 is up 16.5% YTD and was up 3.29 points or .31% today.

The move higher in gold continued. The only bearish thing I can ask about gold is this: if the price index numbers released today were more inflationary than expected, why was gold not up even more? Other than that, it seems like the move in gold is holding and strengthening. One miner of note — Newmount (NEM) — sold bonds in exchange for $2 billion dollars ($900 million senior notes 5.125% due 2019 and $1.1 billion of 6.250% due 2039). The raise was 8.7% of the companies market cap. The smartest traders of gold are likely the miners themselves. It is notable that more than one of them is raising cash — through one mechanism or another.

If you are watching the scores all day, be sure that the symbols of the big five (Citigroup, AIG, Citi, Fannie and Freddie) are on your screen. Those five are making up 30% of the volume in today’s exchange of cash for shares. It was reported today that the US government may sell it’s 34% stake in Citigroup (C) over the next 6-8 months, starting as early as October. The government would not be announcing selling their stake unless they could show a trading profit. I’d think if the US government is selling, they won’t be selling into a down tape.

As I write, The Financial Times is reporting that some of Lehman Brothers’ creditors are challenging the sale to Barclays. They are claiming that up to $8 billion in cash and securities was transferred without the court’s knowledge!

At the same time, Warren Buffet is on sports television talking about Lehman one year ago. The sensationalism of the crash of 2008 is at all time highs, but momentum markets are tough to fade.

And the beat goes on.

September 15, 2009

Market Rap 14 September 2009

Meanwhile, back at the factory, I am multitasking by writing this as I speak to my press agent. We are discussing the financial news media. It had been so long since I viewed it that I was unaware of its new penchant for the dramatic—very gripping. Gone are the subtleties of fastidious reporting, replaced now with all of the grit and guts of a high-profile sporting event. The modern market buzz words—“game plan,” “discipline,” “focus,” “cheerlead,” “put the hurt on”—are just the pep talk financial players need to pump them up for game time.

Some of the commentators even fight with each other—revealing their true competitor spirits. Though currently they only engage in verbal and written combat, I can’t help but wonder (hope) if its all a slow build up to the actual physical showdown. Just imagine, in the years to come, there may be a division of the UFC that allows these people to not just argue, but beat each other up in a public format! Someone get Dana White on the phone!!

Unlike the National Football League, however, our business sport is not yet reaching a wide enough audience. Instead of beer commercials, business news media sources run local targeted advertising. Last month, one of my informants forwarded me a stunning piece of propaganda by a real estate association claiming that “on average the price of a home nearly doubles every ten years.” They actually related this over the airwaves!

As the sport of financial journalism grows, so too will the advertising base. Perhaps someday local advertising will be replaced by national campaigns by the major brewing companies.

Where exactly I fit into this commentating is yet to be determined. At this point, no one really knows what to think of me. As I continue on my mission, we will all gain clarity.

But I digress. Now on to today’s market…

Stock futures were off overnight and opened lower Monday. They continued to march higher all day long in a generally light session. The S&P pit traded contract is starting to see a return to higher volumes. Whether this is just traders returning back after August is unclear. I’ll stay on the case. The S&P ended higher 6.61 points at 1049.34 or up +.63%.

Goldman Sachs Chief Economist O’Neil was on the wire today. He assured that the economy remains in a period of recovery, and that the recession ended back in the second quarter. He also spoke to the strengths of policymakers, saying they deserve credit for their actions.

According to sources I read, the Goldman fraternity is a very highly compensated bunch. It is no wonder their chief economist is saying good things about policymakers—that is what they pay him extremely well to do.

In other sound bytes, the Fed’s Lacker says “a new regime is needed to manage Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE).” A profound statement indeed; though it would have been far more profound 15 years ago.

And now for the pinnacle of daily intelligence. Advisory: This is so stunning you almost have to read it twice. This is definitely not being discussed on television. The New York Times reports the following:

Wall Street Pursues Profit in Bundles of Life Insurance

That’s right, as if the securitization problems in mortgages were not enough, we may have found something else to securitize. Banks will package life insurance policies into bonds that will be sold to investors. I quote:

“The idea is still in the planning stages. But already ‘our phones have been ringing off the hook with inquiries,’ says Kathleen Tillwitz, a senior vice president at DBRS, which gives risk ratings to investments and is reviewing nine proposals for life-insurance securitizations from private investors and financial firms, including Credit Suisse.”

Well, as long as the phones are ringing off the hook, It must be a grand idea!

To sum everything up, nothing much changed on Wall Street today.

The beat goes on.

September 13, 2009

Liesman Vs. Geithner

If Tim Geithner and Steve Liesman were facing each other in an UFC match, I’d definitely say Leisman in a TKO 4:00 into round II. Let’s take a poll.

Who would win?

a) Inappropriate Question

b) Steve Liesman

c) Tim Geithner

Think of your answer and I’ll tabulate the results.


Comments (1) Categories: Bailout, Sports
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