Thursday, April 9, 2026

November 11, 2009

Market Crash Postponed

Back in September, I outlined how the S&P is gunned higher by buying the Euro Yen (EURJPY) spread against the US dollar.

The chart below shows the spread on the daily timeframe. This spread, along with many other inter-market relationships, are shaping my outlook into year end: The S&P and precious metals will be extremely strong and the weakness in the US dollar will continue.

EURJPY

EURJPY

My posture on the dollar was bullish. I thought we were due for a spike that would catch traders off guard, causing the risk off trade–S&P weakness. However, as chronicled here, a phone call from Japan changed my market outlook. I was alerted that sovereign default swaps had widened, signaling dollar weakness to come.

With the S&P and the metals gunned into year end with dollar weakness, we can take advantage of the upside to build energy for the sell-off of 2010. The crash of 2009 has officially been postponed. The downside in equities will be fierce when the dollar does catch a bid. At some point it will. Just when it is least expected. Like life, trading comes down to the most important x factor of all: timing.

And the beat goes on.

Update RE: Twitter Verification

Editor’s note: The Consigliere communicated the following regarding Mr. V’s ongoing negotiations with twitter re: his verification:

“I am talking to the general counsel of twitter regarding Mr. Volatility’s negotiations to have them verify that he is not verified. cont’d..They are confused as to how to draft the legal language of the contract. I told them to revert to the inverse so they are opposite cont’d…where they started. It is there they may find a way out of the paradox. @twitter @vinnie_vega @fakexfactor #law


Comments (0) Categories: trading

November 10, 2009

Market Rap 10.November.2009

Spooz, dollars a bore.
Amazon, gold, Priceline will soar.
Parlaying gains more.

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Priceline - Daily

Volatility Radio - To Cut A Long Story Short

What happened to you today said the joker to the thief? Well, to cut a long story short I lost my mind.

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Haiku - Market Rap 9.November.2009

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The risk on trade was
on. Stocks strong, dollar weak as
gold keeps shining on.

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