Market Crash Postponed
Back in September, I outlined how the S&P is gunned higher by buying the Euro Yen (EURJPY) spread against the US dollar.
The chart below shows the spread on the daily timeframe. This spread, along with many other inter-market relationships, are shaping my outlook into year end: The S&P and precious metals will be extremely strong and the weakness in the US dollar will continue.

EURJPY
My posture on the dollar was bullish. I thought we were due for a spike that would catch traders off guard, causing the risk off trade–S&P weakness. However, as chronicled here, a phone call from Japan changed my market outlook. I was alerted that sovereign default swaps had widened, signaling dollar weakness to come.
With the S&P and the metals gunned into year end with dollar weakness, we can take advantage of the upside to build energy for the sell-off of 2010. The crash of 2009 has officially been postponed. The downside in equities will be fierce when the dollar does catch a bid. At some point it will. Just when it is least expected. Like life, trading comes down to the most important x factor of all: timing.
And the beat goes on.







