Saturday, April 4, 2026 
Rarely is there a setup like we have now and the profit potential is immense. Volatility could settle back, but it sure doesn’t feel like it’s going to. It could move as high as it did in 2008. Or it could move higher.
Trader Art VIX Weekly
This week we will start to hear first quarter earnings results. Before the New York market open Wednesday we’ll hear from Monsanto (MON). After the bell Wednesday Recycling behemoth and steel manufacturer Schnitzer Steel (SCHN) and retail giant Bed Bath & Beyond will report. I haven’t looked at analyst estimates for any of these names. Market volatility is generally cheap here, as is volatility in many individual names. My bias is to own calls and puts into some earnings announcements this month. A quick view of the charts has me reaching to own calls in BBBY and puts in MON. Generally speaking, you can see how the street will react to earnings by looking at the supply and demand patterns before the announcement. As you can see from the charts below, Monsanto (red) is in a downtrend and looks distributive. Therefore, it will likely trade lower after results. On the flip side, BBBY (blue) is in an uptrend and is being accumulated. It will, therefore, likely trade higher.
Trader Art - MON/BBBY Oil on canvas
There are also four US Treasury auctions this week. Keep these times in mind for volatility in currency markets.
Monday: 13:00 EST US Treasury to auction $8 Billion in 10 year TIPS
Tuesday: 13:00 EST US Treasury to auction $40 Billion in 3 year notes
Wednesday: 13:00 EST US Treasury to auction $21 Billion in 10 year notes
Thursday: 13:00 EST US Treasury to auction $13 Billion in 30 year bonds
I wanted to be a part of it so I became it. And the beat goes on.
Meanwhile, back at The Factory, the internet continues to be the largest communication platform I’ve ever been involved with. If I didn’t own the darned thing, I wouldn’t be where I am–in hiding.
On another note, some noteworthy happenings impressed me recently while speaking to my assistant, Tonya:
–Last week Goldman Sachs downgraded EPS estimates for the banks by 15%.
–The federal reserve hiked interest rates by 25 bps from .50% to .75% on February 19th in a surprise move. Since then, stocks have marched higher while volatility has slunk lower. There are various rumors making the rounds that the fed will repeat it’s actions from February–hike rates by 25bps in another “surprise move.” Moves are moves, but I definitely appreciate surprise moves and use them often.
S&P Futures / VIX
–Ratings agency Standard & Poor’s changed their ratings on Greece last week from negative to stable. Does anyone care about rating’s agencies anymore? Haven’t they been proven meaningless?
–I will be working the Ironman II premier in various locations, including Los Angeles. My client–Ms. Pinky Megiston–is involved with the show so though I’ll be there, absolutely no one will have any idea who I am. After all, not even I know who I am anymore. Whenever I have lost my mind in the past it has always led to bigger and brighter things. This time shall be no different.
As the previously documented sovereign event approaches, the uncertainty that remains draws me closer to the prosperity that will effect the collective consciousness of my readership connection. To further dissect the economic scenario that is playing out, I will offer some thoughts on where things are, what could cause things to reverse, as well as how to best prosper from the sovereign contagion that is spreading like wildfire.
Greece
In my prior post, I outlined the sovereign default risk that we face—somewhere, sometime soon. Several geographies are flashing extremely risky scenarios. Greece is in need of a bailout and they lay on the precipice of disaster if some aid is not found. Any proposal of aid I have seen will not be a solution, rather a band-aid on a broken bone. However, a band-aid could buy Greece some time–which they are in dire need of.
Ireland
Economic woes in Ireland are severe, and they are not being given the focus they require. Further trouble in the place where I kissed the Blarney Stone could be the impetus for the contagion to spread further, causing the market dislocation that I anticipate.
Dubai
Risk in Dubai is priced where it was at the height of 2009. Further trouble and inability to restructure will cause fallout in Dubai—which will affect Europe, which will effect Greece, and the dominoes will continue to tip. Last week in Dubai, I found money dealers paying extremely large mark-ups for physical gold. Indeed, rumors of gold being used as legal tender in Dubai are true. Again we see my thesis substantiated: the risk aversion trade here is not the US Dollar, rather the precious metals–gold and silver.
Spain: The Wild Card
All of the above geographies could stabilize, or with further troubles, could act as catalysts for the contagion to spread quicker than it already is.
I’d note that Spain was a large driver of contagion over the past two years. The housing bubble in Spain was by far the largest real estate bubble compared to anywhere else. They also face a severely high unemployment rate. However, even with all this trouble, spreads on banks in Spain are not showing the stress they should. When the stress of the housing bubble and unemployment rate percolates into Spanish banks, it will be easy for Spain to pick up where it left off. More in need of a bailout this time, Spain will contribute to the strain in Europe, affecting Greece, affecting Ireland…tip, tip, tip.
All That Glitters
Though the catalyst remains uncertain, the looming event is undeniable. Remember, when the entire universe lunges to take risk off the table in a reaction to what I anticipate, gold will stand, glittering amidst the debris. I’ve said it once and I’ll say it again: if you don’t own gold, you should.
And the beat goes on.
There it was, right there on the screen. You had to see it to believe it. They did it! They did it! They pulled it off. No one had ever done THAT before.
At halftime, the score sits at 10-6, the Indianapolis Colts leading the New Orleans Saints. In the locker room, someone with all the guts he needed to make something awesome happen told his idea to someone else and they agreed, and the plan was spun. It was the oldest trick in the book in action. You know, the infamous “tapping on a person’s left shoulder, when you’re standing on their right.” Who made that call? Who made that call? Who said, “We should kick the ball to ourselves”?
Playbook in hand, special teams took the field, and the New Orleans Saints did what no team had ever done. They kicked the ball to themselves at the START of the half. No one does that. Onside kicks are used when a team is under extreme duress—when there is almost no time left and it is your only choice. And since it is obviously your only option, the other team knows to line up their defense in anticipation of it.
But not that day. Not during Superbowl XLIV. They New Orleans Saints did an onside kick before they HAD to, so no one expected it, and that is why it worked! The oldest trick in the book. The surprise was beautiful. No team had ever done that before during The Super Bowl because no team ever had the guts to take that risk—until now! Now sports history is forever changed because the storybook, fairytale, underestimated, Kim-Kardashian-datin’ New Orleans Saints took that risk and it worked. They did an onside kick to start the second half and it worked. IT WORKED!!!!!!
Whatever happened after that didn’t matter because when you take that kind of risk—BELIEVING it can happen—then the universe conspires to help you achieve it. The ending was written when the risk paid off. No one ever gets there the same way, and the saints did it their way: with a gutsy, brilliant surprise.
I love this game. From here on out it will never be the same. And perhaps, after this lesson in mettle, neither will I.
Now that’s entertainment.
And the beat goes on.
The Saints Nailed It
It is my vision that, through meaningful work and collaboration, I can better myself.
Using my inspirations as a guide, I will produce things of importance, and open doors for those that believe in themselves, and build an immense store of energy.
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