Consumer Spending Lifts Stocks
The other day at the office, I was discussing my bullish view of the market with one of my most trusted advisors, X.
“So you’re bullish eh?,” he asked, “Why?”
“Because the market is going up.” I said. “So’ I’ll remain bullish until general conditions change.”
“Why do you think the market is so strong?” he inquired.
“Consumer spending is extremely strong, which drives demand for a whole host of gadgets.” I explained.
“So consumer spending is driving profit growth,” he countered. “This makes me wonder where consumers are finding the cash to spend, given unemployment is so high.”
“It’s the oldest trick in the book.” I offered. “You know, the infamous tapping on a person’s left shoulder when you’re standing on their right. Consumer spending is extremely strong, which is driving profit growth–tap on the left shoulder–but the money consumers are spending is the money with which they are not paying their mortgages. The banks are standing on the right.”
“So when will you turn bearish on stocks?”
“When the market is going down.” I said. “For now I’ll trade to the long side. I’ll own names that resemble the chart of Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI)–which I also own.”
And then I was gone.

SIRI Oil on canvas







