Much like the game show, The Joker’s Wild, tomorrow’s GDP report is the third number being gamed in a trifecta of reports. Translation: tomorrow’s GDP is final. GDP is announced three times per quarter. The Advance number for the second quarter came in at -1.0% on July 31st. The preliminary number came in at -1.0% on August 27th. Estimates for the final number, to be released Wednesday at 8:30 AM EST, are -1.2%. Keep in mind, we are looking at a number in the rear view mirror. Q2 ended June 30th. That was 3 months ago. In the first quarter of this year, final GDP was -5.5%.
Deduction
Rear view mirror as the number is, always check your blind spot. No one may be following you, but someone may be closer than you think. With final estimates at -1.2%, coming off a Q1 final of -5.5%, there will be plenty of positives to highlight. The sportscasters will be out in full force. More important than the final number will be it’s effect on analyst revisions to their Q3 and Q4 estimates. If analysts are forced to revise their Q3 and Q4 estimates downward, trouble will ensue. When trouble ensues, everyone tries to leave the theatre at once. When a quick exit is wanted by all, the doorways become jammed.
Vin Scully
Speaking of sportscasters–I am talking about the broadcast media. There are many contributors out there worth paying attention to. Two of note are Art Cashin and Guy Adami. Both have had a ringside seat next to the tape for a long long time, and neither of them like stocks here. Pay attention to them. They sit very close to the action. While it’s fun to poke fun at television, it’s contributors are one of many information sources–agree or disagree with their opinions.
Sportscasters, traders, bankers, estimates and revisions.
The following names were subtracted from the Investors Business Daily 100 list for the
week of September 28: STEC Inc (STEC), W N S Holdings Ltd Ads (WNS), Inverness
Med Innovatns (IMA), Iconix Brand Group (ICON), Research In Motion Ltd (RIMM), Copa
Holdings (CPA), Life Technologies (LIFE), Abaxis (ABAX), American Superconductor
(AMSC), Innospec (IOSP), Intl Shipholding (ISH), Gentiva Health Svcs (GTIV), Shanda
Interactive Entmt (SNDA), TJX Cos (TJX), Alliance Data Sys (ADS), Oceaneering Intl
(OII).
President Barack Obama’s press conference and subsequent Q&A from the G20 summit in Pittsburgh have elicited strong reactions from east to west and beyond. It is my opinion that Iran’s twist of fate lies with Israel. For more background, I recommend this article from the Wall Street Journal: Conflict is inevitable unless the West moves quickly to stop a nuclear Tehran.
Due to fundamental and technical factors, crude oil is poised to move lower. If middle east geopolitical concerns escalate, the rotation into the dollar (risk aversion) will have profound affects on the price of oil, as it is dollar denominated. The move lower will gain velocity if the dollar makes a sudden move higher. Traders going long oil as a hedge against geopolitical concerns may be surprised at how quickly the price of oil crashes, as a result of dollar strength — supply disruption or not.
Peace
Superheroes know their place in the universe and in the pursuit of being good at something do their best to add value.
-Mr. Volatility
Reactions to President Barack Obama’s comments at the Group of 20 summit in Pittsburgh are the major headlines heading into the weekend. Traders are speaking of a potential “shock” in the oil market, warning oil may trade much higher. According to my work, oil and energy are the most vulnerable sectors in the short term. Any response to geopolitical concerns will reflect in a bid for the US dollar, which will pressure oil lower.
The S&P cash index closed lower by 6.40 points or .61% at 1044.38. The S&P mini futures contract closed at 1041.00 — 4.75 points off it’s low print of 1036.25, which was printed just after 10AM PST.
ES - 15 Minute
Overnight, credit spreads in Asia were wider by 9% on bearish news out of Aiful as well as a 30% dilutive secondary offering out of Nomura Holdings (8604.TSE). In the states, credit spreads were wider across the board. Default swaps were active with about 7 wideners to every tightener.
Gold came into the week at $1,006.15/oz. and closed slightly lower at $991.35/oz. Crude oil closed a tad higher today, but lower on the week to settle at $65.05. Crude has broken lower out of consolidation in what could be a harbinger of further weakness in the near term.
Crude Oil - Weekly
Research In Motion closed lower by 17% at $68.91, just above it’s low print of $68.47.
The $VIX closed at 25.61, up 2.65% on the day.
I’d sum up this week’s trade in equities as mildly distributive. I saw evidence of defensive posturing (risk aversion) amongst traders. In order for the sell-off to gain momentum, we will need a catalyst. What that catalyst could be is yet to be known. The situation will continue to be monitored and the beat will go on.
Tuesday, April 7, 2026 
