Not unlike a certain market hero, Oprah Winfrey is really good at what she does. Her interview with Mike Tyson, aired yesterday, is nothing short of genius.

Though the evidence is impossible to find in any video footage on the internet, Oprah used the word volatility at the tail-end of the interview when she was speaking to Tyson’s wife, Kiki. Fast forward to :52 into the hour long broadcast, and you’ll hear Oprah speak to Tyson’s “volatility with money.”

It’s good to hear my name out there. I suspect volatility will be a more mainstream concept in the near future–especially if O is spreading the word.

Other favorite moments from the interview:

Tyson on Cus D’Amato:

“He was from a bad neighborhood. He was a street kid like me. Then, one day, he just said, ‘Listen, you have the chance to change your life, your family’s life,’ ” recalls Tyson. “He said, ‘You do what I tell you to do, and if it doesn’t work, then you can leave.’ ”

“We’d watch all the great fighters. I would ask him, ‘How do you beat them?’ “Tyson recounted how his mentor had an answer for every boxer except one—Muhammad Ali. Gus would say “No one could beat Muhammad Ali.” Tyson reflects a moment and says, “I agree with him.”

And my favorite quote of all is when Tyson says, “I just thought God never created a man that could beat me in a fair fight.”

Much like the game show, The Joker’s Wild, tomorrow’s GDP report is the third number being gamed in a trifecta of reports. Translation: tomorrow’s GDP is final. GDP is announced three times per quarter. The Advance number for the second quarter came in at -1.0% on July 31st. The preliminary number came in at -1.0% on August 27th. Estimates for the final number, to be released Wednesday at 8:30 AM EST, are -1.2%. Keep in mind, we are looking at a number in the rear view mirror. Q2 ended June 30th. That was 3 months ago. In the first quarter of this year, final GDP was -5.5%.

Deduction

Rear view mirror as the number is, always check your blind spot. No one may be following you, but someone may be closer than you think. With final estimates at -1.2%, coming off a Q1 final of -5.5%, there will be plenty of positives to highlight. The sportscasters will be out in full force. More important than the final number will be it’s effect on analyst revisions to their Q3 and Q4 estimates. If analysts are forced to revise their Q3 and Q4 estimates downward, trouble will ensue. When trouble ensues, everyone tries to leave the theatre at once. When a quick exit is wanted by all, the doorways become jammed.

Vin Scully

Speaking of sportscasters–I am talking about the broadcast media. There are many contributors out there worth paying attention to. Two of note are Art Cashin and Guy Adami. Both have had a ringside seat next to the tape for a long long time, and neither of them like stocks here. Pay attention to them. They sit very close to the action. While it’s fun to poke fun at television, it’s contributors are one of many information sources–agree or disagree with their opinions.

Sportscasters, traders, bankers, estimates and revisions.

The beat goes on.

Meanwhile, back at the office, I just hung up with Tony Stark. Due to client confidentiality, I am unable to disclose whether I run money for Tony. I can say that due to the magnitude of cash flows in and out of Stark Industries, Tony often comes to me for guidance. He has also borrowed my plane, The Errol Flynn, on occasion.

Before I run off to afternoon meetings, my thoughts turn to the replay of today’s tape.

The S&P closed off .34% or -3.64 points. The NASDAQ closed positive 5.18 points or .24%. Spot gold was off $3.25 and sits at $1,002.90. Oil futures closed lower by 3.57% to settle at 69.50.

Friday Night Announcement

After a strategic late Friday night lowering of guidance, Potash (POT) gapped lower this morning. The bookies — who make money no matter where Potash trades — were out in full force and their comments boosted the stock off it’s lows at $90.82 to close at $93.09. Broadpoint AmTech reiterated their buy rating, price target $116. BofA/Merrill maintaned their buy rating, price target $114. Fading the crowd was Soleil Securities, who cut POT from to hold from buy, price target $88.

Friday night press releases are an ominous sign. If I owned any Potash, I’d be selling it as fast as I could.

Caterpillar Stats

In other news of interest, Caterpillar (CAT) released dealer statistics for the June to August period. Retail machine sales were down 48%. CAT has rallied from the low 20s to the mid 50s since March. Valuation seems unjustifiable here, especially when the forthcoming rally in the dollar is factored in.

Ponzi Accounting

One of my favorite shorts of yesteryear, Prologis (PLD) was back in the news today with an announcement of a consent solicitation for $2.96 billion in debt securities. Prologis has taken advantage of the market strength over the past 6 months to — through various mechanisms — raise an exorbitant amount of capital. The accounting at Prologis continues to resemble that of Enron. At some point, the common equity in this company will be wiped out. In reaction, Wall Street will respond with the ever popular retort: How could we have known?

Nostalgia

On September 23, 2008 I posted my analysis of Research In Motion (RIMM). In what was one of the largest profits on my P&L last year, RIMM moved from $100 down to $40 in just over a month. This year, sports analysts on business TV are pushing RIMM even harder than they were last. On a technical basis, the price action in RIMM looks healthier this year. However, the cycles run with the seasons. When RIMM lowers guidance this week, the shock factor will be of greater magnitude than last year. In what mirrors the timing of their release last year, RIMM is announcing their earnings on the same date — September 24th — and the same day of the week — Thursday. I own puts in RIMM and my nostalgic mind is counting down the time until their numbers hit the wires.

Rimm - September & October 2008

The market is gearing up for something big and I’ll continue to document it here — where as always — the beat goes on.

The beat goes on mid day in New York.


The S&P 500 is up 11.86 points, the DOW up 79.65 and the NASDAQ Composite up 21.35 at about 1:15 EST.


Steve Liesman reported earlier that commercial real estate exposure at large regional banks is undergoing major review by the Fed. Further, the Fed has yet to decide whether or not to do full stress tests.

The bank “stress tests” earlier this year were rigged. REITs have raised a tremendous amount of cash through equity and debt offerings in the past 6 months. Unfortunately, the leverage in the sector was immense, and the repair is just getting started — in spite of whatever public relations stress tests are administered.


Last evening, Polish central banker Stawomir Skrzypek was over the wire saying the financial crisis is entering a new phase and that asset sales cannot be the only method to amend the budget. In other words — we can’t just sell things, we need to cut spending. Sage advice. Perhaps central bankers around the world will take note. I am keeping an eye on Poland for several reasons. First, they are extremely vulnerable to credit risk. Second, there was a failed government bond auction last week — only half of the five year notes offered by the finance ministry were purchased. In reaction, analysts recommended selling Polish bonds across the curve. Last week, Polish central banker Dariusz Filar stated that Poland’s 2010 budget assumptions are appropriate, and he believes 2014 is a realistic date for Poland to adopt the Euro. Talks of a currency crisis have begun to make the rounds. The Polish Zloty is certainly vulnerable.


The National Banking League (NBL) received coverage in analyst land last evening. Analysts at BofA/Merrill see sales of Citigroup (C) shares by the government as having little dilution and maintain their buy rating.

“It is highly unlikely that the government would exit it’s position in Citigroup (C) in a disorderly fashion. Common shares will be disposed of through secondary offerings of large blocks of shares to institutional investors.”

“7.7 billion shares should be considered in the context of recent daily trading volumes of 1 billion shares per day.”

As BofA/Merrill competes for the banking fees to run the (C) secondary, there isn’t possibly any conflict of interest in these analyst comments. Are there?

If Tim Geithner and Steve Liesman were facing each other in an UFC match, I’d definitely say Leisman in a TKO 4:00 into round II. Let’s take a poll.

Who would win?

a) Inappropriate Question

b) Steve Liesman

c) Tim Geithner

Think of your answer and I’ll tabulate the results.