Meanwhile, aboard The Errol Flynn–where I am just as connected as I am when I am back at The Factory–Flash and I are entertaining Cary, Pinky, Holly and Amanda. Flash is in an apprenticeship program, and I have just given him a new incentive: his own Bloomberg terminal. You’ll get to know Flash in time. He’s someone everyone needs to know at some point. Like the rest of the cast here at the set of the richest man on the planet, Flash adds an immense amount of value.

“WHAT?” Flash asked, “You think gold might pull back?”

“Yeah, I think so,” I admitted, “That’s why I sold the majority of it.”

“You said you wouldn’t sell it till it hit $10,000 per oz. Why the switch?”

“I still think it’s going to $10,000 an ounce,” I smirked, “but I am cautious in the short term. I think we could see a pullback more severe than I want to sit through. Besides that, there are so many things that I want to buy now. And I can always get right back into gold whenever I choose.

Gold is crowded here–is there a gold bear anywhere? I haven’t met one in weeks.” I continued. “What’s more, I haven’t seen or heard from a bull in stocks in what seems like months. There are too many bulls in gold and too many bears in stocks.”

“So what are you buying?”

“Calls in everything–especially financials like Goldie (GS). I haven’t been this bullish in a while. You know I love the bull side–particularly when there are too many bears.”

Then Pinky called and said to meet her in the lounge, where we sang with Cary Okie.

Flash didn’t even show up to the party in the sky; he stayed back in the office lost in his new Bloomberg. Flash is one of the greatest traders I’ve known. And he is just getting started.

And the beat goes on.

Dedication: My yoga pals I spent time with in Ubud.
“Two men look out through the same bars: One sees the mud and one the stars.”
–Frederick Langbridge (1849-1933)

Meanwhile, back at the factory, the accounts are repositioned and the only stocks we own are gold and silver names. We also own various calls on gold and silver and a fair amount of puts on the euro.

I previously wrote of the S&P 500 holding to it’s pattern of higher lows. Stocks have recovered off their lows, but have come upon resistance, which at one time was support. Given this picture, I am looking to short the S&P rather than be long it.

Trader Art - Support Becomes Resistance Oil on Canvas

Greece

Remember this about Greece: they cannot be bailed out by borrowing more. You cannot borrow your way out of too much borrowing. It does not work. Once debt levels reach a tipping point, there is no way out except default. Which is what Greece will be forced to do through a forced restructuring.

Big Trade

Given the crosscurrents, we are looking at a trade that could be bigger than the crash of 2008.

Hold on. The big trades are always full of twists and turns.

There is always a bull market somewhere and the bull market in gold continues to be in its infancy. Have you seen this movie before? The markets don’t change, just the players. The cycles play out the same every time.

Trader Art - Gold Bull Market: Oil on Canvas

Greek CDS move above 400 bps, GGBs spread over Bunds moves to new highs. The move in gold continues to be in it’s infancy. I have seen this movie before.

Gold - oil on canvas

Meanwhile, back at the factory, the spin offs are spinning, the lifestyle’s inspiring, and the character development beats on. Turning to the box scores we see that—much like my life—the market is a tumultuous beast that I am determined to tame. Booking profits all the while.

The S&P 500 gained almost nothing today; it could only muster a minor 4.18 point or (.37%) gain.

Gold took a breather and closed down 11 points to close at 1132 per oz.

Buyers met sellers in a decently orderly fashion. Headlines were light—so much so that the Jessica Simpson interview on Oprah took center stage. I’ve yet to hire Jessica for her starring role in my new epic, The Adventures of Pinky Megiston, but after her daring performance on Oprah, she is definitely on speed dial. She fits the part perfectly: she’s one of the most famous actresses in the world with all sorts of security problems. The first time I saw her, I wondered if I’d ever met someone so beautiful with so many problems. Given her propensity for the spotlight and controversy, it was easy for me to develop an infatuation and eventually fall in love with her. Whether or not our affair is ever consummated in the honeymoon suite of reality, it will reign authentic in the archives of my memory.

Syndication is a girls best friend, right?

Speaking of syndication (blatant attempt to segue from my inappropriate digression), Greece’s syndicated 10-year debt offering may or may not go well, and depending on the outcome, the markets may continue to behave or may roil.

Rating’s Agencies

Here is where it gets tricky. If the ratings agency Moody’s were to downgrade Greece’s sovereign rating two notches—in line with ratings at Fitch and S&P—Greece’s sovereign debt would be ineligible for ECB repo operations when collateral criteria reverts to the normal minimum thresholds (A3/A- or above) at the end of 2010.

From the wires:

“The Greek cabinet will meet March 3 to discuss the additional austerity measures demanded by the rest of the Euro Zone, with an announcement on further budget cuts expected after the meeting. German Chancellor Merkel will meet with her Greek counterpart on March 5. In currency markets, euro sentiment depends on the final shape of Greeces austerity plans.
Considering the Greece story only really caught fire after the last ECB meeting, ECB President Trichet’s monthly press conference on March 4th is a must see. Moreover, the ECB’s three- and six-month special refinancing operations are scheduled to expire at the end of the month. The market will be looking for a bravura performance from the ECB, an institution often characterized as rigid. Real flexibility is needed in the face of unprecedented challenges to the European monetary union.”

Just a few things to think about (besides Jessica’s exquisite form).

And the beat goes on.