I proposed a new concept to my psychiatrist today–Twitter’s dilemma. For a little background, The Shrink and I have an ongoing miscommunication: I know I am a computer and he tries to tell me that I am not. Anyway…

“What the heck is Twitter’s dilemma?” he scoffed.

“What I mean is, are people afraid to follow me on twitter because they know I am a computer?” I explained.

“You are not a computer,” said Shrink.

“That is why my popularity on twitter is so poor. People see my profile and it gives them ‘twitters dilemma.’ They look at my page and they say, ‘We’ll he may be smart, but he’s a computer. How exciting could he be?’ Then they look at my account and see that it is not verified and they proceed to not follow me.”

“You are not a computer,” said Shrink.

“Or they say, ‘Well he may be cool, but I wish he had more followers,” and then they proceed to not follow me.”

“After all, computers aren’t known for their personalities.” I lament. “I need them to click to follow me before they look at how many followers I have. Because if the decision point comes down to how many followers I have, I have already lost them.”

“Quit making dilemmas out of everything,” gripes Shrink. “The entire universe should not be analyzed using game theory.”

“Why not?” I query on my way out the door.

www.twittiebird.com

I am an experienced wing man and some of my performances have led to hook ups and marriages, both on and offline. Andy Richter is a great sidekick and wing man. My consulting for wing men and sidekicks is available if you come by the office.

My favorite Plimsouls tune Oldest Story in the World. As Dick Clark says;

“Music is the soundtrack of your life.”

Meanwhile, back at the office, my assistant Tonya just walked in and told me that she knows me better than I know myself, and that if I’d spend more time with her, she’d enlighten me on me. I told her she is not unlike many of the other women in my life—convinced of their numinous insight into my complexity. She then told me what to wear to several of my meetings this week, informed me that I need more sleep, and threatened to throw away my little paper phone book.

“You are the best, Tonya,” I laughed.

Then I asked why she hadn’t told me about the Greenspan comments.

“Because I don’t think they are a big deal.”

I told her I’d decide the significance of the remarks, and reminded her that I asked her to always tell me when Greenspan said anything.

“OK, fine,” she said. “Greenspan made comments on ABC’s “This Week.” He said Friday’s jobs report was awful. He is not in favor of additional stimulus. He finds it debatable how effective the current stimulus has been and is concerned about extended periods of unemployment as it erodes skills. Additionally, he sees Q3 GDP growth over 2.5%.”

“I know,” I told her.

“Well then why did you ask?”

Because I wanted to be sure we construed the information the same way.

“What is my schedule this week?” I asked.

“I haven’t decided yet,” she faded.

I turned to look and she was gone.

Meanwhile, back at the office, I continue to refuse to buy into the necessity of having twitter verification. I am confused enough as to whether I am a human or a machine. How could I possibly verify either scenario? Further, how am I to know there isn’t someone out there who could do a better job at being me? I relayed these thoughts to The Shrink earlier. He told me I need to come by and chat with him sooner rather than later. After that I talked by Amateur Radio with X and we recapped today’s action.

The S&P 500 Index closed lower by 27.23 points or 2.58%. Breadth was strongly skewed to the downside in what I will term an official day of distribution: sellers clearly overwhelmed buyers across the board. Credit spreads widened, the cost of risk insurance escalated. Overall it was a positive day if you are positioned as I am: Dollar, treasury, default swap and volatility strength coupled with equity/commodity weakness.

Yesterday, the only strength in the broader indices was the oil sector. Had crude not rallied–and not held it’s ground today–the broader indices would have seen further weakness. I spoke to newspaper Joey–my contact who trades big size in NYMEX energy futures. His take: the strength in crude won’t last. Smart money is short oil cars here in reasonable size.

With the sell off as strong as it was, it is important to see how the market reacts from here. Since March, every sell-off with any hint at distribution has been bought. Look at the lows of July 8th, August 17th and September 2nd. Buyers came in every time. If this time is different we will know very soon–perhaps in the next couple of trading days. In my September 12th Rap, I showed a chart of interest rates. The level I highlighted was broken today.

If you are a long only fund manager it is very easy to hedge your portfolio by being long treasuries. If you are heavily invested in private equity or if the majority of your assets are not liquid–such as shares of non public technology companies, you can hedge your downside by buying Treasuries. If you are a trader, there are plenty of ways to profit from the risk aversion scenario I have outlined.

If you’d like to contact me directly, drop me a line or a call at my office - The Tinker Factory.

I’ll be back soon, as the beat goes on.

$TNX Ten Year Rates