1. I am not short the dollar anymore. While I had expectations that the dollar would break down out of it’s recent consolidation, it broke up. That’s trading. If you are trading because you want to be right all the time, then this is the wrong business for you. Trading is not about being right frequently. It is about the magnitude of your gain when you are right. This concept is illustrated more clearly in The Babe Ruth Effect: Frequency VS Magnitude.

2. I am bullish on Gold. However, in the short term I have re-allocated any interest in gold to short more of the REITs. At some point I will be long the yellow metal again.

3. Why am I so bearish on the REITs? Because that is where the alpha will be. The market will trade lower, but what sector is going to crash lower and outperform to the downside? The commercial REITs. Stay tuned to Stripnomics for the names with the worst fundamentals. If you’d rather look at a chart of the real estate index, just check out symbol (IYR).

Peace

Look Out Below

The U.S. Dollar is consolidating.  Consolidation precedes expansion.  The next expansion in the dollar is likely down.

US Dollar

Gold is moving well.  It is up nicely since my post on October 30.  The oldest trick in the book works and works and works, until it doesn’t.  When it doesn’t work anymore, there could be a larger scale attempt at manipulation.  Think 1933.  All of this is good and supports my thesis that the action in gold is going to be mind blowingly bullish.  The media will be shocked by it’s velocity.  Everyone will be rushing to own it.  All the while, my store of energy will be building.
Gold can only be held down for so long. Increasingly, the mathematics will demand the courage to face it’s implications.

Gold

The Office

Do or do not, there is no try. -Yoda

Peace

At the moment I own gold, I am short the dollar and I am waiting to short the REITs again.

When to short them?

Well, I’ll let you know. As they say, it’s all about the timing. That’s where Mr. Volatility comes in. He is the timer. Pay attention to the timer.

Seabiscuit

Each year I find a Santa Claus that stands out. This year I found him in Miami.
Stay warm my brother.

Miami Santa

Did you have a good world when you died? Enough to base a movie on? -Jim Morrison

Peace

The US Dollar is breaking down and gold is acting strong. I will continue to benefit from my weak dollar, strong gold thesis. The Dow Jones US Real Estate Index (IYR) is rallying. This is very opportunistic.

At some point the (IYR) is going to be a massive short, again. I do not think that point in time has come. I wonder how much retracement we will see in the trend?

Nature’s math is evident in all places. Especially markets.

Peace

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While still in the thick of one of the wildest volatility moves on record, I am seeing some macro dynamics that I’d like to communicate. I am on to the next wildest massive move we may ever witness. It is the oldest trick in the book.

There is a massive shortage in the physical gold market. My lead time for Maple Leafs is out about 5 weeks. But I am locking in my price today. I am accumulating the yellow metal in all forms. This is going to be one massive massive trade. If I am able to pull off what I think is possible, this will be a trade of the proportion that George Soros pulled off when he shorted the British Pound. Gold went wild in the 1970’s. Gold is going to go even wilder now. You think that Gold has already made it’s move? Not even close. Factor in inflation….and commodity prices…and so on and so on. Gold is just getting started. And the bubble in gold won’t be a bubble at all. It’ll be a return to normalcy. The confetti paper got out of hand. Now we have to clean up the party.

Peace

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