Earlier today I was closing some deals when I remembered that it was time for me to address the eBusiness Cashual nation. I started eBusiness Cashual (eBC) while traversing a myriad of sumptuous hotels and satellite castles that Robin Leach could only add to his champagne wishes and caviar dreams. It was within these undisclosed locations that I made my formal Cashual breakthrough: my rags to riches tale is fodder for more than a Hollywood epic. I had undervalued myself—I had a higher purpose.

As this indubitable knowledge materialized, the eBC concept was conceived—yet it remained unborn. The possibility hung in the air in front of me like a 15-year-old awaiting his driver’s test. Still the dream was taking form, and I believed in it.

Laboring to birth my business brain-child, I considered the most important aspects of industry and production. The best businesses are the ones that empower others to create their own businesses. Think eBay or Google or Amway. How many people have founded businesses upon the generous platforms of the these giants? The catch: though free to a large audience, these businesses do require some fees to be paid. Someone is taking a cut. But If I could come up with a business so robust that it was impervious to these cagey cuts, a profit would be profit.

Now I have transcended entrepreneur and become philosopher. If I define my business as one that empowers others, but also disables the process of profit skimming, I may just have a new concept: the reverse pyramid scheme!

Standing atop my pyramid and reveling in my intellectual bounds, I realized after all, it is all about me. In attempting to explain how it wasn’t, I confirmed that it was. The best businesses are free to a very large audience, are viral, and no one else takes a cut of the profit. Deducing through the algorithm, it becomes clear: The best businesses are lifestyles.

Thus the painfully beautiful birth of eBC—the lifestyle of Vinnie Vega—sprawling in it’s newborn purity before you. EBC is a collaborative enterprise contact management cloud solution from which we can all gain. It is what it is. There is no face or book in it. Here at eBC, we start in the street, steady on our feet, and we always keep it eBusiness Cashual.

We Love You eBC.

Oil futures trade at $70 as I write. As the price of crude crashed lower last year, volatility (insurance, derivatives) in the underlying contracts increased in price. Inverse movement that can be played either way, or hedged and levered.

Crude Oil Volatility / Crude Oil

Meanwhile, back at the headquarters of my for profit think tank, I read George’s book today, The Crash of 2008 and What It Means. If you are interested in his view of the inter-market relationships and forces that were in place during the banking collapse last year, I recommend it. He traded actively during 2008, and he lays out the thought process(es) behind his positioning. He is a decent critic of himself in that he admits to many mistakes. He ended 2008 “modestly higher”, which he considers an accomplishment in a “period of almost universal wealth destruction.”

He candidly admits to missing the largest part of the crash, “Although I am an experienced short seller, I got caught several times, and in the end I largely missed the biggest downdraft, which came in October and November.”

He also talks to being slow to recognize the trend reversal (strength) in the dollar, causing him to give back profits. “Eventually I understood that the strength of the dollar was due not to people choosing to hold dollars but to their inability to maintain or roll over their dollar obligations. In a very real sense, the strength of the dollar, like the fever associated with sickness, was a measure of the disruption of the financial system.”

While the collapse was decently predicted, the rush to the dollar caught most off guard. Most traders–even the ones that made a killing being short the mortgage and mortgage related markets–would agree: it was surprising that the risk aversion trade became buying the dollar–the currency at the center of the collapse.

Green Energy

As the housing bubble that led to the collapse of 2008 deflates, another is being built. The massive investment in cleaner, more efficient distribution of energy is the next great growth industry. I invest heavily in energy. It is, after all, the mother of all markets. I’ll end with my favorite line of the book:

“Nothing is quite as profitable as investing in an early-stage bubble.”

And the beat goes on.

In the future (past), society began to re-asses the utility of being online. The internet (as we know it) develops in a series of cycles. In time, we learn that during certain cycles, it becomes more valuable to utilize the internet to hide oneself as opposed to promote oneself (inversion).
-Mister Volatility

After a conference call with my assistant, Tonya, I am still uncertain if I own any preferred shares of Twitter. Trading public markets is like venture capital with one caveat—timeframe. Venture investors trade over periods of years. Mister Volatility (that’s me) invests in ventures himself and has, from time to time, lent money to VC firms to participate in their arbitrage. Private equity is a longer timeframe trade. In public market trading there is sufficient liquidity on smaller timeframes (scales), down to the millisecond. These micro scales present results to the exponential–so I must build models to trade them. The liquidity cycle of Venture Capital is much longer. Given the variance in timeframes my investment focus is dual: Private equity on in the longer frame and public (liquid) markets on the shorter.

I do not own any direct shares of Twitter—but it is possible that I own some through a fund. The reason Tonya doesn’t know is because she doesn’t know everything about me. If there is one imperative I can impart about assistants, even the great ones, it is this: keep some secrets.

Anyway, what I am saying is that I want to buy shares of Twitter, even if I already own some. If I already have some, I’d like more. I understand there are shares for sale at Sharepost.com, and I instructed Tonya to take care of it. Unfortunately, she said the website will not accept my registration because The Tinker Factory does not release it’s physical addresses, and an address is required. Therefore, if anyone is interested in selling me shares, please come by the office sooner rather than later. I am an internet analyst after all, and my analysis reveals that the market cap of Twitter will surpass that of Google. In fact, it will be the second largest company in the world (as measured by market cap). We will talk about the first largest company in the world later, but I’ll give you a hint: think automated distribution and green energy. (But don’t limit yourself to the typical definition of clean and efficient power. Might not “green energy” refer to banking–some money is green and banking is about moving money, which requires energy!)

Perhaps someone will be in touch soon to sell me some shares. No matter, I am going to build some companies over the next couple of weeks that I’ll sell to Twitter for stock as opposed to cash.

And the beat goes on.

Today’s trading was a flight away from risk–risk off. US equities were weak with the S&P 500 (SPX) off 2.82%, the Dow Jones (INDU) Industrial Average down 2.51% and the tech heavy Nasdaq Composite (COMPQ) down 2.5%. The Volatility Index traded higher by 24% at 30.71. On the Nasdaq, there were 4.2 decliners for every advancer. On the NYSE, 6.5 decliners for every advancer. Volume was heavy all around.

S&P 500 - Daily

Volatility Index (VIX) - Daily

The US Dollar index closed higher by .62% at 76.39, Ten year Treasury futures traded higher by to close at 118 19/32 or up .76%, IEF closed at $91.99.

IEF - iShares 7-10 Year Treasury

Below are a few of the intraday charts.

US Dollar Index - 15 Minute

Crude Oil - 15 Minute

ES S&P Electronic Mini

Citigroup: He Said, She Said

I couldn’t help but reach for puts in Citigroup (C) today. Analyst Mike Mayo was quoted as saying that Citigroup will write down $10 billion of deferred tax assets, representing 10% of Citigroup’s tangible equity. Citigroup quickly responded they had no idea how the analyst was making those calculations. No matter if Citigroup learns how to calculate or not, their common stock is likely heading south of $1 within the next 6 months to year. I am short the big C–the former largest bank in the world.

Citigroup - Daily

The Shimmer of Gold and Silver

Yesterday, I noted that my stance had changed on the precious metals. I am positioned to take advantage of a move higher in gold and silver.

Gold was weak at the equity open this morning, but strengthened throughout the day to close near unchanged. This is evidence of the strength in gold to come. I am long select gold miners and maintain my stop below yesterday’s low. Credit default swaps on Japanese sovereign debt are rising, and the Yen is outperforming against the US Dollar versus other major currencies including the Euro (FXY), the British Pound (FXB) and the Aussie Dollar (AUD).

The charts below show this outperformance graphically. It is my view that this relationship will eventually lead to US Dollar weakness, and therefore strength in gold.

Gold - Daily

FXY - Japanese Yen

FXE - Euro

FXB - British Pound

FXA - Australian Dollar

Next week, same time, same place. And the beat goes on.