Saturday, April 4, 2026

October 25, 2009

Market Rap 23.October.2009

Meanwhile, back at the office, Anything Anywhere! and I are going to see Paranormal Activity later. Before that, we are discussing the tape. Friday was significant, and the biggest gains of the year are in front of us, not behind us. Anything Anywhere!, who is in the delivery business, is jumping up an down about the breakdown in the railroads (BNI, UNP, CSX). There is so much to talk about, I’ll start with the broader averages.

The S&P 500 closed down 13.31 points or 1.22% at 1079.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 9972.18, down 109.13 or 1.08%. The Nasdaq Composite was only down about half as much. It closed at 2154.47, down .50%. The fall in the Nasdaq was softened by strength in names such as Micrososft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Netflix (NFLX), Bidu (BIDU), and T Rowe Price (TROW).

While equities were weak, the dollar showed signs of support. The US Dollar Index closed higher by .50%. In my prior post, I mentioned the importance of the $75 level in the USD Index. That was two weeks ago, and we continue to hold the line.

US Dollar Index - Weekly

US Dollar Index - Weekly

Trading Lesson

Since I anticipate a breakdown in equity prices–and strength in the dollar–I look to be short weakness, not strength. In other words, I’d never be short Amazon (AMZN), or Google (GOOG) here. Rather, I’d look to go short Northern Trust (NTRS) or Knight Trading (NITE). Trading lesson: If you are bullish, buy strength; if you are bearish, short weakness. Write that down.

Dark Pools

Of late, there has been limited media attention to dark pools. Dark pools are off exchange platforms run by large banks (Goldman et al). Dark pools allow traders to remain anonymous, in order to disguise their trading strategies. Important speculation regarding dark pools is currently circulating—if certain proposals are passed, trading rules will alter. And when the rules of a game are changed, it is prudent to be cautious.

The proposal in place seeks to cut the trading limits in a dark pool. Currently, if trading through a dark pool, you are allowed to trade 5% of a company’s daily volume. The proposal–which will be put into effect imminently–will restrict the amount of shares you can trade from 5% of a company’s daily volume down to .25%. You can trade 95% less shares now. By cutting the amount of shares you can trade, regulators are effectively shutting down dark pools.

Knight Trading (NITE) is, through all intents and purposes, a dark pool. It is my opinion that NITE will trade below $1 in the near future. There are plenty of fundamental data points which indicate trouble. Also noteworthy is the tremendous promotion scam which was just recently perpetrated.

It all kicked off in March, when someone figured out that something was wrong with NITE–perhaps it’s business was going away. In order to sell a huge position, someone floated a rumor: NITE was to be taken over by a large online brokerage firm based in San Francisco, CA. These rumors bring in suckers, and allow smart money to position.

On Wednesday August 19th Pali Research raised NITE from hold to buy.

On September 16th, NITE was mentioned positively on CNBC program Mad Money.

On October 9th, takeover chatter made the rounds again—more hitting the bid by insiders.

Now, smart players have sold their positions in NITE and gone short. The setup is complete. If dark pools are shut down, liquidity will be hindered. The ramifications of this will be more significant than what the market is priced for. Coming back full circle, I own put options in NITE. Someone knows something, and I am happy to follow their tracks.

Knight Capital Group - NITE

Knight Capital Group - NITE

Gold

Gold has traded in a range over the past two weeks. Gold and precious metals remain vulnerable to a sudden rally in the dollar. I continue to view the metals from the sidelines.

Gold Futures - Daily

Gold Futures - Daily

Looming Catalyst

Living up to it’s name, the stock market is currently a true market of stocks. There are plenty of names that are showing strength–AMZN, TROW, and MSFT to name three. In my view, we are witnessing one of the greatest liquidity driven rallies of all time. Investors are bought in. The movie theatre of the market is jam packed, standing room only. The lights just went down. At some point, someone is going to stand up and yell fire. A catalyst that will cause a rush to the exits. Everyone can’t get out at once.

As all of this unfolds, fortunes will be made and lost. All the while, the beat goes on.


Comments (3) Categories: Dow Jones Industrial Average, Market Rap, NASDAQ, dollar

Art Cashin Interview

Bob Pisani interviews Art Cashin.



Comments (0) Categories: media, trading

October 23, 2009

Q&A with John Doerr


Q&A with John Doerr via U.S. News & World Report


Comments (0) Categories: private equity

Deep Thoughts



I like being online. It feels so hidden.


Comments (0) Categories: Deep Thoughts

October 22, 2009

Market Rap 21.October.2009

Meanwhile, back at the office, my online presence continues to be in it’s infancy. That said, the plans that are in the works have some of my collaborators collaborators–and everyone in between–smiling real big. We are all on the same page. This whole thing is one huge party. Most importantly, as my voice grows louder, the parties will become grander on a logarithmic scale. I hope you’ll be there.

It has been a while since I rapped out a market rap. Let’s start with the big picture weekly and zoom in to the shorter term daily chart of the S&P 500.

The weekly chart indicates that the downtrend in stocks is still in effect–the S&P is still within the normal range of a pullback within an overall downtrend.

S&P 500 - Weekly

S&P 500 - Weekly

Switching to the daily chart, we see a nice looking uptrend. This means that the big money is still to the downside, but on a shorter timeframe–daily as opposed to weekly–you cannot be short. Don’t short into buying; short into selling. (It works both ways: don’t buy into selling; buy into buying). How? Wait for signs of distribution and then go short.

S&P 500 - Daily

S&P 500 - Daily

A great example was when I positioned short in July. The market showed distribution–an increase in the selling that overwhelmed the orderly buying. I shorted stocks and I lost money. What happened? I was dead wrong. In my younger days, I’d have taken a 20 mile run and said things to myself like, “How dumb can a man get and still go on living?” That was before I knew the game as well as I do now. Though I was wrong, I limited my losses.

This is not archery, it is more like baseball. Frequency of being right is not as important as the magnitude of the gains when you are right. I don’t always get it right, but when I do, I have magnitude on my side. That’s what works for me, but remember, as Mark Twain said “there is more than one way to skin a cat.” The best thing a trader can do for him or herself is not attempt to do what works for someone else, but to do what works for him/her. As part of my vision, I hope my writing helps you develop what works for you.

Zooming into the intraday charts, we started to see some sign of distribution in the last 45 minutes of the equity session. While the jury is still out as to the exact catalyst for the late day sell-off, the general consensus is that it was the downgrade of Wells Fargo (WFC) that came over the wire. One day does not make a market, but when the selling starts, it will first appear on the intraday charts. Today could have been it. Stay tuned.

S&P E-mini - 15 Minute

S&P E-mini - 15 Minute

Last night X and I had a call about global oil demand and game theory. I have known X since we were very very young. He usually knows what I am thinking. “You’re waiting for signs of distribution to get short again, aren’t you?”

“You bet I am.” I responded.

“The big money is in the big swing. The path of least resistance in the big swing is still down. What the catalyst for the inevitable sell-off is, I don’t know. However, I have done this long enough to know that the rubber band can only be stretched so far. Eventually, it breaks–which really hurts–or it snaps back inward and finds a new equilibrium.”

And the beat goes on.


Comments (0) Categories: S&P 500, Sports, oil, short selling, volume
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