Saturday, April 4, 2026 
Market Rap 06.October.2009
Meanwhile, back at the office, Gold hit an all time high today and the S&P 500 closed +14.26 points or 1.37% at 1054.72. Gold - Weekly Chart Goldman Sachs Vs. Oil
The gold market is going to offer an obscene amount of trading opportunities, both long and short, in the years to come. The breakout today is big news.
Now, the big bad question is what to do from here. It has been my viewpoint that gold is vulnerable to a violent sell off–if there is a sudden risk aversion rotation into the US Dollar. Last night, there were rumors that oil traders would abandon the US dollar and attempt to denominate oil against a basket of currencies. These rumors make the rounds now and again, and they are always funny. Oil is not going to trade against anything else anytime soon. After all, if you were an oil trader, what would you like the contracts settled in? I prefer my oil settlements in dollars (just fine thanks). That said, not everyone thinks like I do. The rumors of oil re-denomination, a 25 bps rate hike in Australia and weakness in the greenback all pointed to the the new high in gold today.
I remain sidelined in the yellow metal for the moment, and it feels lonely. The move in gold is starting to be about momentum and trading the technicals–an endeavor which I have a decent track record.
The next chart speaks to the conspiracy theory of the day. Rumors of a derivative loss at Goldman Sachs (GS) between 9:30 and 10:00 AM PST. These rumors come up from time to time. I discussed my thoughts on Goldie in a prior post. I’ll leave them at that. Before you dismiss the Goldman oil rumors straight away, check out the price action. They traded in lockstep throughout the equity session. Conspiratorial as these rumors may be, the charts sure move together.
After the bell today, a slew of oil numbers were released. They all seemed inline except the distillate numbers, which were -2.9 million versus a flat estimate. Oil traded a tad firmer on the news.
Tomorrow before the bell we’ll see numbers out of Monsanto (MON) and Costco (COST). After the bell Alcoa (AA).
I am off to dinner with a vice cop turned lawyer turned trader. Reinvention is the mother of innovation. And the beat goes on.
