Saturday, April 4, 2026 
Market Rap 02 September 2009
S&P 500 Intraday Range S&P 500 - Daily Treasury Futures Gold
The S&P hugged the lows of yesterday for the majority of the day in a mostly quiet session.
Quiet as it seemed, there was a pick up in volume in both the S&P e-mini contract (machines) and the pit traded contract.
Poker
When I left off on my poker analogy, the market called my re-raise after the flop. I stated that I would call the market, no matter what the turn card. The turn card was dealt yesterday and the break lower showed a pick up in volume. Along with the pick up in equity volume, the credit market confirmed what it had been hinting at all of August. Credit spreads widened across the board, most notably in the financial complex.
Waiting for the turn card was the tough part. I have now bet the size of the pot and I await the market’s reaction. Based on today’s action, I’d say the market has not reacted much. It is still staring down at his cards. So far the only tell is the pick up in volume in the S&P futures contracts today.
I stuck to my plan when the turn card was dealt by buying puts in a range of asset classes and calls in 10 year Treasuries. From a chart perspective I see potential resistance in the 10 year above the 120 mark.
Gold
Gold traded strong today and was up the most it’s been since March. Depending on where the trendline is drawn, some may declare it an official breakout. Some time back, I sold my gold positions. Last year, when the flight to safety trade gripped Wall Street, gold traded much lower–as low as $680 per oz.
In light of that, I am going to see if gold can surpass the $1,000 mark–and the subsequent reaction–before I am tempted back into gold futures. For now, the physical gold that I hold in safe haven countries around the globe will suffice.
Slowly but surely, cracks in the foundation of the market are appearing and confirming themselves. If volatility is to make a sudden move higher, I am positioned well.
As I wait for the market to react to my bet, I will seek out the important tells and communicate them as best I can.
That’s a Rap.
Peace. Out.
If the market moves all in will you call or fold? How about a 2/3 pot size bet?
Comment by gauchojake — September 2, 2009 @ 7:56 pm
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