GDP GDP and a Triple

Much like the game show, The Joker’s Wild, tomorrow’s GDP report is the third number being gamed in a trifecta of reports. Translation: tomorrow’s GDP is final. GDP is announced three times per quarter. The Advance number for the second quarter came in at -1.0% on July 31st. The preliminary number came in at -1.0% on August 27th. Estimates for the final number, to be released Wednesday at 8:30 AM EST, are -1.2%. Keep in mind, we are looking at a number in the rear view mirror. Q2 ended June 30th. That was 3 months ago. In the first quarter of this year, final GDP was -5.5%.

Deduction

Rear view mirror as the number is, always check your blind spot. No one may be following you, but someone may be closer than you think. With final estimates at -1.2%, coming off a Q1 final of -5.5%, there will be plenty of positives to highlight. The sportscasters will be out in full force. More important than the final number will be it’s effect on analyst revisions to their Q3 and Q4 estimates. If analysts are forced to revise their Q3 and Q4 estimates downward, trouble will ensue. When trouble ensues, everyone tries to leave the theatre at once. When a quick exit is wanted by all, the doorways become jammed.

Vin Scully

Speaking of sportscasters–I am talking about the broadcast media. There are many contributors out there worth paying attention to. Two of note are Art Cashin and Guy Adami. Both have had a ringside seat next to the tape for a long long time, and neither of them like stocks here. Pay attention to them. They sit very close to the action. While it’s fun to poke fun at television, it’s contributors are one of many information sources–agree or disagree with their opinions.

Sportscasters, traders, bankers, estimates and revisions.

The beat goes on.