Saturday, April 4, 2026 
Rick Santelli Agrees with Mr. Volatility
Back at the office, my traders and I were discussing the bond market, specifically the Ten Year Treasury Note and it’s rate.
I don’t watch CNBC. One of my traders keeps an ear on it for me. He alerted me to the rumor Rick Santelli spoke of today: The Treasury would start to sell a 50 year bond. Rick Santelli is one of the only people on CNBC worth listening to. After all, who else on that channel has been in and around the trading pits since 1979?
In my post from April 22nd, I laid out my thesis on how the Ten year will be moved higher. I said that the FED would halt sales of the 30 year, exactly as they did in the year 2001. This action would then spike demand for the Ten Year. If US bonds are a safe haven, and you cannot buy 30 year US bonds, the safe haven becomes the Ten year.
Rick and I agree. The Ten Year goes higher. Rick thinks they’ll halt the 30 Year and offer a 50 year. I think this is possible. One thing that gives me pause is how embarrassing the UK’s offering of 40 year gilts (bonds) was in March. I don’t think it would look too good for the FED to offer a 50 year to a tepid response.
Whether they offer a 50 year or not, I don’t know. I do know that rates must go lower. Markets don’t move, they are moved. As the FED moves the Ten Year to new highs, the rate will move to new lows.
Below is a chart of the Ten year and the rate on the Ten Year. Notice the inverse movement. Notice the red line at the bottom. Rates will go below there. They have no choice. The mathematics are irrefutable.
Inverse
Peace
Hey Mr. V GLD continues to go lower, whats your gut on gold?
Comment by Kodiak Boy — April 28, 2009 @ 6:21 pm
Hello. Thanks for this update…makes a lot of sense.
i’m curious where you see the S&P heading….and if we’ve really hit our “low” in the market yet for equities
keep up the updates at your website and twitter…i follow you all day long and it has been very insightful
Comment by A — April 28, 2009 @ 8:19 pm
Precious metals, including gold, are going to be as precious as they were when I owned them from 1977 to 1980 for a 10 fold move. You ever wonder where Maurice Templesman got the idea to put Jacki Kennedy Onassis into gold in the 70’s? He got it from me. Mr. Volatility.
Comment by Mr. Volatility — April 28, 2009 @ 8:27 pm
Thx A. My long term target on the S&P is 300. We won’t go there in a straight line, but that is the level I see as the area to get long for the next bull move in equities.
Comment by Mr. Volatility — April 28, 2009 @ 8:35 pm
Hey Mr. V,
Don’t try to pull the wool over our eyes. We all saw your “office” at the tiki bar on the beach. So I feel your opinions might be tainted a bit. Let’s see, short SPX or put on sun tan lotion. Go long GDX or get another margarita. LOL
Comment by katzo7 — April 29, 2009 @ 3:30 am
so what happens now when they want to sell more 30yrs (14billion) next week?
and what if they don’t do anything? will people flock to treasuries anyways since it is rising above 3%
Comment by jason — April 29, 2009 @ 9:21 am
Mr V. what now? Fed didn’t do anything … and insight would be great. i’m baffled
Comment by jason — April 29, 2009 @ 11:16 am
Mr. V, what do you think will happen now since the Fed meeting really helped the market and they haven’t stopped the 30 yr yet?
S&P 300…wow…what is your long term timing on that…that’s the first time i’ve heard anything below 500…at this rate who knows…nothing is making sense.
thanks again…when is the next comic coming out?
Comment by A — April 29, 2009 @ 9:13 pm
The FED is crafty. They will announce something mid market. They announced The $300 billion Treasury buyback at their last meeting. The market shrugged it off. This time, they will wait until no one is looking. Then they will send a shock.
Comment by Mr. Volatility — April 29, 2009 @ 11:22 pm
[...] David and I agree. I mention my long term target for the S&P in this comment. [...]
Pingback by Magazine Files 16.May.09 | Trade the Picture — May 30, 2009 @ 12:35 pm
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