Saturday, April 4, 2026

February 7, 2009

Big Week Ahead

I can just feel the tension. All eyes are on the new Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner.

Here at Trade the Picture, I attempt not to over analyze the analysis. The price action says it all. Below is a weekly chart of the S&P 500 futures. The tale of the tape this week will be one of three theme songs.

1) Breaking Up Is Hard To Do

The market will defy the voting mechanism and rally. This one will be difficult, but not impossible. After all, breaking up is hard to do.

2) Trapped In a Box

Nothing like some old school No Doubt with a few friends and a billiard table.

This is a more likely scenario. This scenario will frustrate the most people. Don’t ever rule it out. The market will continue, As Nicolas Darvas might describe it, to be trapped in a box.

3) Breakdown

Nothing like some classic Tom Petty.

This one will be the easiest. Down is still the path of least resistance.

Breaking down below the green line will take us right to the blue line. If this scenario plays out, my downside insurance will expand in value quickly and seismically.

Peace

Consolidation

Consolidation

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