While still in the thick of one of the wildest volatility moves on record, I am seeing some macro dynamics that I’d like to communicate. I am on to the next wildest massive move we may ever witness. It is the oldest trick in the book.

There is a massive shortage in the physical gold market. My lead time for Maple Leafs is out about 5 weeks. But I am locking in my price today. I am accumulating the yellow metal in all forms. This is going to be one massive massive trade. If I am able to pull off what I think is possible, this will be a trade of the proportion that George Soros pulled off when he shorted the British Pound. Gold went wild in the 1970’s. Gold is going to go even wilder now. You think that Gold has already made it’s move? Not even close. Factor in inflation….and commodity prices…and so on and so on. Gold is just getting started. And the bubble in gold won’t be a bubble at all. It’ll be a return to normalcy. The confetti paper got out of hand. Now we have to clean up the party.

Peace

Click to view larger

Click to view larger

Inasmuch as we are part of nature we are also perfect; it is our humanity that is imperfect. And, ironically, because of our capacity for imperfection and error we are free beings - a freedom that no stone or animal can enjoy. Without the possibility of error and real indeterminacy implied by the quantum theory, human liberty is meaningless.
The God that plays dice has set us free.

-Heinz R. Pagels

——

It has been a while since I have written. I have so much to tell. So many stories. Some have been written, some are being written, and some will be written.

There are a couple of articles that I find interesting to read:

Malcolm Gladwell’s expose of Sidney Weinberg is an excellent read. Remember, there is no greater gift in the universe than adversity. We have all had our share. Adversity is a guest in my life. I am able to embrace it because I know that the only one that can beat me is me. I feel blessed at the adversity that I have been gifted. It has helped me go places and see things that many have not.

——

Michael Lewis is one of my favorite writers. His piece, The End, hits the nail on the head. As I stated in my post from September 22nd, Investment Banking as we know it is over. Lights out. Game over.

——

As an update to my positions, I have bearish bets on many commercial REIT names. My favorite shorts are Alexandria Real Estate Equities Inc. (ARE) and HCP, Inc. (HCP). Both are houses of cards, just like Prologis (PLD). The cluelessness of everyone involved in these names is amazing and so beautifully opportunistic. NO ONE seems to have a clue as to what is happening in this sector. No one except myself and my collaborator at The Tinker Factory.

——

Where am I bullish? Gold.

In a conversation with some of my collaborators last night, I heard the most prescient comment:
In hard times, people want to own dollars. In harder times people need to own gold. I am very very very bullish on the yellow metal (GLD), and I continue to build my bullish position.

Peace

Click to view larger

There’s nobody that can beat me playing cards. The only one that ever beat me was myself, my bad habits.

-Stu Ungar

Peace

Click to view larger

(1). We Love You CC.

(2). Prologis (PLD) was the third biggest loser in October. The next leg lower in that one is coming. Just wait until the 10-Q is filed. That’s when we’ll catch a peek of the cash flow statement.

How do you like that trade? Then spread it around.
We are the one. We are the Crowd.

(3). Great words:

They say “life is a game,” so I play hard
Writin for my life cause I’m scared of a day job
They say “Sef kept the hood together”
I tell the young, “We can’t play the hood forever”
Play my cards right, they say I went to left
They showed me strange love, like I was Mr. F
Played chess in this game of, pawns and knights
Now I claim “King” like Don, or Frank White
They say my life is comparable to Christ’s
The way I sacrificed, and resurrected, twice
They say “The crochet pants and the sweater was wack”

-Common

Peace.

I think I just found another stock that is going to 0. Here we go again. (PLD) isn’t even at zero. Yet. And now, I think I found another one. This one is in an entirely different industry. But it smells like the same old story. Too highly leveraged. After some collaboration and some fundamental research, I may start accumulating puts in this name very very soon. You might find me throwin’ some orders around the pits tomorrow. This one feels like a big big hit.

This stuff has been going on for so long. It was written about very eloquently in the 1600’s.

Some in clandestine companies combine;
Erect new stocks to trade beyond the line;
With air and empty names beguile the town,
And raise new credits first, then cry ‘em down;
Divide the empty nothing into shares,
And set the crowd together by the ears.

-Daniel Defoe

Click to Enlarge