Saturday, April 4, 2026 
Are You Sure You Know How Hot That Hot Potato Is?
It looks as though (BAC) is going to bid for (MER). We may be on the cusp of one of the most lucrative risk reward trades of the year. Lets see what the MER puts sell for in the morning. I’ll be out there lookin’ for some strikes and may even punch away at some offers. Reason? When the books are opened, the party might start to get concerned about the counterparty. Or vice-versa. Or HMMM? Anyway, the deal likely doesn’t go through. If it does it will be because of the opinion of an Investment Bank that may have ties to the counterparties’ parties partied out party buddy. Let’s shift that risk around a bit in our heads why don’t we. If it doesn’t go through, those little cheapies down below are going to get their sexy back real quick. We shall see. We shall see. We shall see through the eyes of Mr. Volatility.
I know. I know. I know what you are thinking. What about the problem of induction? I answered it already. Solve the problem of induction by understanding how to size your positions correctly.
Peace.
